US investors at odds over what comes next
Wall St and more importantly the global bond markets place a high degree of degree of confidence in the US non-farm payrolls as a predictive economic...
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Why the RBA is likely to remain on hold for longer than it should | Economic Update
Last week’s stronger than expected increase in wages growth, in the December quarter, was largely ignored by the bond market and considered immaterial...
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Market’s fantasy gets shattered by inflation yet again | Economic update
Last week began quietly enough so as not to wake market participants from their delirium in which “Goldilocks” is real and “immaculate” disinflation...
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Talks of a recession completely fade away | Economic update
As foreshadowed last week the US ISM services index results supported a forecast of increased economic activity over the next 6-9 months. Gone now is...
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Market at a pivot point as inflation surge likely to return in March | Economic update
Investing is very difficult around key pivot points. If it were easy everyone would be getting double returns consistently. After a short lull in the...
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Are we in the eye of the inflation storm? | Economic update
During November the market consensus shifted towards the FOMC and ECB remaining on hold throughout 2024. This reflects a forecast that inflation will...
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The Bank of Japan doesn’t remember how inflation works | Economic update
Last week was a big one for the history of Japanese monetary policy. If you did not notice this, you are forgiven. Getting any news on Japan – one of...
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Why the CPI report reaction surprised so much | Economic update
We were surprised last week by the reaction to the slightly better than expected US CPI monthly report. In aggregate the headline month-on-month CPI...
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Pivotal week for global markets as the ticking time bomb awaits | Economic update
The week ahead may prove pivotal for the global bond markets. The US has roughly $33 trillion in Federal debt, at an average interest rate of roughly...
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Markets get caught by a triple surprise | Economic Update
The markets were caught by a triple surprise last week. Firstly, the Treasury opted to issue less 10 and 30-year bonds and more 3-5 year bonds for its...
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