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The NSW Government Revenue department have published Residential Land Transfer figures up to the end of August.

The figures paint the same picture as what we see in the weekly auction figures. According to CoreLogic, Melbourne reported a 56% clearance rate for 1,008 properties, with a definite bias against the higher valued properties. Sydney had 1,016 scheduled auctions, only 681 have reported a result with a 57% clearance.

We can blame the usual culprits – too much household debt, stagnant wages, Labor Party fears of negative gearing cut-backs and capital gains discount haircut, the Royal commission getting the banks to properly assess borrower’s expenses, the Prudential Regulator’s speed limit on interest only loans, serviceability testing being done at 7.25%, and a new data sharing arrangement between the banks so that every bank knows all the loans you have with all the banks.

According to the NSW Government Revenue department, in July 2010 the annual receipts for residential property land transfers was about $3 billion. By September 2017, annual receipts had grown to $7.5 billion. 12 months later this figure had fallen 11% to $6.6 Billion. The Government projection of a 1.5% increase each year for 4 years in their forward estimates looks a bit hopeful.

The graph shows that the number of transactions has fallen by 9.5% and the value of transactions by 11.4%, so hopefully it will be an orderly decline from here. The only cure is growing the debt levels again, so I am not too sure it would be wise to wish for that.

The figures paint the same picture as what we see in the weekly auction figures. According to CoreLogic, Melbourne reported a 56% clearance rate for 1,008 properties, with a definite bias against the higher valued properties. Sydney had 1,016 scheduled auctions, only 681 have reported a result with a 57% clearance.

We can blame the usual culprits – too much household debt, stagnant wages, Labor Party fears of negative gearing cut-backs and capital gains discount haircut, the Royal commission getting the banks to properly assess borrower’s expenses, the Prudential Regulator’s speed limit on interest only loans, serviceability testing being done at 7.25%, and a new data sharing arrangement between the banks so that every bank knows all the loans you have with all the banks.

According to the NSW Government Revenue department, in July 2010 the annual receipts for residential property land transfers was about $3 billion. By September 2017, annual receipts had grown to $7.5 billion. 12 months later this figure had fallen 11% to $6.6 Billion. The Government projection of a 1.5% increase each year for 4 years in their forward estimates looks a bit hopeful.

The graph shows that the number of transactions has fallen by 9.5% and the value of transactions by 11.4%, so hopefully it will be an orderly decline from here. The only cure is growing the debt levels again, so I am not too sure it would be wise to wish for that.