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Website Update
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Private Client Advisers is one of the largest ETO advisers.
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Private Client Adviser Services (PCAS) has maintained a large presence in the options market in Australia. Option premium turnover since July 2011 has been $498 million, placing us in the Top 20 in Australia. As BBY is our clearing broker and ASX participant, the PCAS figures are included within their numbers. This is quite a good result considering the list includes all of the market makers in Australia. Additionally, PCAS operates only out of one office compared to other ASX Participants who have multiple offices and advisers.
State and Federal Government spending
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The Reserve Bank data for 31st March 2012 shows that total State and Federal Government debt securities outstanding is $442 Billion. The annual increase is $82.2 Billion, and showing an upward trend. As of 31st March 2012 the total Federal debt on issue (face value) was $236 billion. (source RBA satistical table E3). The mandated debt ceiling is $250 billion, so the Government is increasing the limit to $300 billion in the budget appropriation bills, just in case the promised surplus is not forthcoming. If they didnt include it in the appropriation bills then if they subsequently sought to pass legislation to increase the limit there would be a lot more debate in the Parliament, not dissimilar to the US debt situation.
Marginal Tax Rates
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The Government has announced that the tax free threshold for income has been tripled from $6,000 to $18,000. Sounds great, and is often referred to, but it is not all what it seems. Yes the threshold has tripled, but they have removed the $1,500 low income tax rebate for incomes under $30,000. In addition, they have amended the marginal tax rate from 15% to 19% for incomes under $37,001, and from 30% to 32.50% for incomes under $80,001.
Quick Budget update
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The actual 2011/12 deficit comes in at $44 billion
The Austerity Budget we had to have
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Tonight is budget night, so it is good to remind everyone that the chances of any Government coming close to meeting their budget target is zero.
Real estate sign of the times
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As a indicator of the tough time it is for the property market, it is unusual for a Government body to actually lower the official value of property. A $22,000 fall equates to a 16.6% drop. If these falls are consistent across the state it will place even more pressure on State Government finances.
RBA contradicts Government
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The RBA says the elevated currency is holding back the economy, with economists saying the RBA misread the economy. The Government says that they will cut expenditure to make room for an expanding private sector. Increasingly the Government looks to be out of touch.
Lehman Brothers revisted
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A friend sent me an amazing research paper from Morgan Stanley - Patrick Pinschmidt, initiating an overweight position on 30th June 2008 for Lehman Brothers, with a price target of $31.00. On 15th September, 2008 Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankrupcy protection, marking the largest bankrupcy in US history.
Credit growth, budget deficit cuts & austerity
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Yesterday the RBA released the credit aggregates for the Australian economy. No surprises here - personal credit growth is negative, business credit growth is an anaemic 1.3%pa, and total credit growth is 3.4%. Total credit growth is barely growing enough to pay for the compounding interest on the debt. The growth needs to be seen relative to a growing working population and increasing wages. And it is into this scenario the Government wants to put the brakes on growth by returning the budget to surplus. For the forthcoming Federal budget, the Treasury department will probably be forecasting 3.5% real growth, or about 6% nominal growth in the economy. As we are all taxed on nominal income rather than inflation adjusted income, the forecast growth rates will do most of the heavy lifting to close the deficit gap. After the rosy growth rates are factored in, there probably will be $10 billion of austerity spending cuts that will be need to be found.
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